Pensions

[Bella]

Does it make sense to invest in a pension fund? Or are you better off just putting money in the bank regularly?

[miktay]

specifics would help here...

[Bella]

Well, I'm asking a general question. I recently worked out what a bank account would yield over 10 years if I put 200 euros a month in it, and the figure was impressive.

Right now there's some furore going on over here about pension funds, so I was wondering if putting your money in a pension fund makes you a sucker

[Redman]

Hey Bella,

Ok a bank account will give you a fairly static rate of return which over a period of 10 years would add up to some nice looking figures- However if you account for inflation the purchasing power of that sum might very well paint a different picture. The REAL return is the interest rate on the account minus inflation. Thats the important figure-which might be negative

Pension funds tend to be long term and therefore are supposed to be managed with inflation as a key bench mark to beat. They SHOULD therefore be able to show real appreciation over and beyond the rate of inflation.
Also there may be favorable tax treatment of sums invested into pensions- (In Tdad you can get 25k put into Pensions as a tax break)

Currently the worlds central banks have been increasing Money supply across the board - increased supply in any commodity would decrease the real value - Therefore I think we are in a period of higher inflation AND a debasement of the currencies as each economy defends its trade with a relatively weak currency. Ive been buying real assets- gold oil base and precious metals as a STORE of value over the long term. Therefore the last place I would place money would be a fixed return vehicle.

Later

[Bella]

Hey Bella,

Ive been buying real assets- gold oil base and precious metals as a STORE of value over the long term. Therefore the last place I would place money would be a fixed return vehicle.

Later

Thanks Reds,

You think it still makes sense to buy gold, Boy? You think the price will continue to go up? And what precious metals are you referring to? What about agricultural funds, and water?

[Redman]

Bella

Im in the commodity sector because I believe it to be the most constrained area re demand vs supply.

Water and agricultural are in tight supply as a function of price. If you say you buying corn at $1000 a lb you can get all the corn you like. At some point additional supply can be brought to market to satisfy demand. Water is the same thing with a high enough price you can desalinate the ocean eg: They are now pumping sea water 90 miles and 7500 feet up to the Atacama Desert in Chile- to support mining operations.

So high prices will bring supply whether new feilds of corn or new economics of desal and pumping.

BUT how do I increase supply of Gold or Oil? There is a long lead time, huge capex so the supply is constrained.

Fact- never in history has energy demand suffered negative growth.
- Emerging economies EXPONENTIALLY increase energy demand.
-The emerging economies are now located in the most densely populated areas
-The US uses 20-25 barrels of oil per capita- China uses 2-5 India less.
- If you subscribe to the peak oil theory -we have problems.

So I have to ask - how do India China close the gap re oil use- I say the increase to meet the US (not US decrease)

Im buying (for myself and clients) The commodity complex and holding miners,ETFs and related companies.
Bella if you want to discuss PM me and we can continue- I dont want to be seen as passing out advice on this (or any) forum

Later

[Thais]

What's wrong with passing out advice?
If this is your area of specialty and you can do it anonymously, I don't see how it can affect you negatively. It can only help others.

[Bella]

What's wrong with passing out advice?
If this is your area of specialty and you can do it anonymously, I don't see how it can affect you negatively. It can only help others.

It can be seen as soliciting clients, Thais. And in this financial area it's unwise for the forum to accomodate that. People could get ripped off.

[Bella]

Bella

Im in the commodity sector because I believe it to be the most constrained area re demand vs supply.

Water and agricultural are in tight supply as a function of price. If you say you buying corn at $1000 a lb you can get all the corn you like. At some point additional supply can be brought to market to satisfy demand. Water is the same thing with a high enough price you can desalinate the ocean eg: They are now pumping sea water 90 miles and 7500 feet up to the Atacama Desert in Chile- to support mining operations.

So high prices will bring supply whether new feilds of corn or new economics of desal and pumping.

BUT how do I increase supply of Gold or Oil? There is a long lead time, huge capex so the supply is constrained.

Fact- never in history has energy demand suffered negative growth.
- Emerging economies EXPONENTIALLY increase energy demand.
-The emerging economies are now located in the most densely populated areas
-The US uses 20-25 barrels of oil per capita- China uses 2-5 India less.
- If you subscribe to the peak oil theory -we have problems.

So I have to ask - how do India China close the gap re oil use- I say the increase to meet the US (not US decrease)

Im buying (for myself and clients) The commodity complex and holding miners,ETFs and related companies.
Bella if you want to discuss PM me and we can continue- I dont want to be seen as passing out advice on this (or any) forum

Later

Thanks for explaining, Reds. I'm convinced that your advice is sound. Moreso because I've been proved so wrong these last few years. My husband has been consistently saying 'buy gold' and I have been ignoring him.

[Redman]

HAHAHAHA
Listen to the man

Thais, fact is that there are rules that I follow in my line of business.
2) You have no ability to determine whether or not Im talking crap.
3) If I say buy x at $y I then have the implicit responsibility to say when Im selling.
4) This is a discussion and not a forum for advice.
5) IM NOT SOLICITING ANY CLIENTS


Later

[miktay]

Caveat emptor

[Cherry ®]

I diversify my 401k and put half international and half domestic but still based in stock since I have longer time to retire..but i was so annoyed when i notice these high yield funds rate drop cause the Feds cutting their rate...

Pension funds for the elderly (sorry bella lol) or can anyone get in on this?

[miktay]

Cherry: you can make your own pension: its called an IRA

[Cherry ®]

^^ yeah is that self i was checking out..but i still trying to figure out which one..ROTH or regular..whether to take the benefit now or wait till when i want to withdraw the money and get the benefit then..but suppose i dead before den...decisions....decisions...